Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians were one people a single whole, or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a wall between the two. To better understand the changes taking Still, Moscows demand was largely seen as a nonstarter by the West, as NATOs open-door policy says sovereign countries can choose their own security alliances. March 10, 2022. On the Russian side, an agreement is only as good as Putins word. The US has continued to add penalties, including joining other countries in closing US airspace to Russian aircraft, and sanctioning more than a dozen oligarchs. Russia knows that the US and its partners do not want to commit themselves militarily, and, as Putin launched his invasion, he offered an ominous warning as he touted Russias nuclear arsenal: There should be no doubt that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country. On February 27, Putin escalated that threat by putting the countrys nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. Ukrainian and Russian officials met in early March, and tentatively agreed on the need to humanitarian corridors basically, safe zones for civilians to flee and supplies to pass through but did not reach agreements on a larger ceasefire. Ukrainians, who sacrificed millions of lives to save the Soviet Union This plan fell apart within the first 48 hours of the war when early operations like an airborne assault on the Hostomel airport ended in disaster, forcing Russian generals to develop a new strategy on the fly. Get in-depth coverage about Russias war on Ukraine. Russia spends over 10 times as much on defense annually as Ukraine; the Russian military has a little under three times as much artillery as Ukraine and roughly 10 times as many fixed-wing aircraft. Another thorny issue perhaps the thorniest is the status of Crimea and the two breakaway Russian-supported republics in eastern Ukraine. One theory, advanced by Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar, is that pandemic-induced isolation drove him to an extreme ideological place. On February 28, high-level officials from Russia and Ukraine met at the Ukraine-Belarus border, and again on March 3. Though Biden said this man [Putin] cannot remain in power in a late March speech, both White House officials and the president himself stressed afterward that the US policy was not regime change in Moscow. On March 28, the Financial Times reported significant progress on a draft agreement covering issues ranging from Ukrainian NATO membership to the de-Nazification of Ukraine. All signs point to Russia waking a sleeping giant of creating a powerful military and economic enemy in the heart of the European continent. In early March, the US Department of Defense opened a direct line of communication with its Russian peers in order to avoid any kind of accidental conflict. To be clear: The Ukrainian government is not a Nazi regime and has not been co-opted by the far right. The surrounding region in recent years has seen Russias war with Georgia in 2008, political uprisings against Russian-backed leaders in Ukraine and Belarus and a Now the planet is facing a deeper crisis: a shortage of food. Perhaps most importantly, close observers of the war believe Russians are suffering from poor morale. From the outset, Russias decision to invade was hard to understand; it seemed at odds with what most experts saw as Russias strategic interests. The prospect of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO has antagonized Putin at least since President George W. Bush expressed support for the idea in 2008. That was a real mistake, Steven Pifer, who from 1998 to 2000 was ambassador to Ukraine under President Bill Clinton, told Vox in January. In early February, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley told members of Congress that Kyiv, the capital, could fall within 72 hours of a Russian invasion. [But] Putin did not invade because of NATO expansion, says Yoshiko Herrera, a Russia expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Some parents have even left their newborns at the hospital, perhaps hoping to give them a chance at life in the one place with decent electricity and water. But even after the Russian high command adjusted its strategy, other flaws in the army remained. [g] Following Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas War. Scholz, in his speech, did away with and overturned so many of what we thought were certainties of German defense policy.. The war between Russia and Ukraine also impacted global supply and prices of agricultural commodities, like wheat and soybeanamong the products imported by the Philippines from the two countries. Nearly overnight, the Russian invasion convinced center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz to support rearmament, introducing a proposal to more than triple Germanys defense budget thats widely backed by the German public. But Ukraine isnt joining NATO in the near future, and President Joe Biden has said as much. Addressing some of the most pressing questions of the whole war, from how it started to how it might end. Underpinning it all is tight government control of the information environment. Things are stable in a nuclear sense right now, says Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on nuclear weapons at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Learn the history behind the conflict and what Russian President Vladimir Putin has said about his war aims. Graft in Russia is less a bug in its political system than a feature; one way the Kremlin maintains the loyalty of its elite is by allowing them to profit off of government activity. On March 4, Russia seized Zaporizhzhia, one of Europes largest nuclear power plants. When a battle is won, its reasons The international punishments have been extremely broad, ranging from removing key Russian banks from the SWIFT global transaction system to a US ban on Russian oil imports to restrictions on doing business with particular members of the Russian elite. His longtime belief in the urgency of restoring Russias greatness curdled into a neo-imperial desire to bring Ukraine back under direct Russian control. But thats not how things have played out. In theory, US and NATO military assistance to Ukraine could open the door to escalation: Russia could attack a military depot in Poland containing weapons bound for Ukraine, for instance. Its destabilizing the region and terrorizing Ukrainian citizens. The Feb. 24, 2022, invasion has touched off a refugee crisis, as Ukrainians flee the conflict in their homeland and many Russian men seek to avoid conscription. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Instead of getting into pitched large-scale battles with Russians on open terrain, where Russias numerical advantages would prove decisive, the Ukrainians instead decided to engage in a series of smaller-scale clashes. The United States has said it will not involve troops in any Ukrainian conflict, though more US military aid to Ukraine is on its way and the US has shored up its presence on NATOs eastern flank. Reader support helps us do that. President Barack Obama, hesitant to escalate tensions with Russia any further, was slow to mobilize a diplomatic response in Europe and did not immediately provide Ukrainians with offensive weapons. Nowhere is this devastation more visible than the southern city of Mariupol, the largest Ukrainian population center to which Russia has laid siege. WebThe Ukraine-Russia Conflict Signals and Scenarios for the Broader Region Summary Russias annexation of Crimea and the military operations in eastern Ukraine have overturned the postCold War norms that provided stability and development for the former Sovietnow sovereigncountries bordering Russia. Morale can shift with battlefield developments. He recognized the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine where Moscow has backed a separatist rebellion since 2014 and sent so-called peacekeeping forces into the region. More than 1.5 million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries like Poland since the conflict began, according to a United Nations estimate. Most Russians get their news from government-run media, which has been serving up a steady diet of pro-war content. A way out of this war is difficult to contemplate as bombs are falling on Ukraine, but the US and its allies are going to have to do careful diplomacy to isolate and put pressure on Russia in the long term and create incentives for Moscow to stop its assault on Ukraine. There have been heightened tensions between Russia and the world over Ukraine for the past few years. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been in news. Medyka, Poland on February 25, 2022. The war and the way the separatists abuse their opponents and mismanage their republics economies, cooled pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. The majority of countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America do not support the invasion, but wont do very much to punish Russia for it either. The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to global energy markets. But the United States is the most important third party, using a number of powerful tools short of direct military intervention to aid the Ukrainian cause. Five days later, the Russian military swiftly seized control of Crimea and declared it Russian territory, a brazenly illegal move that a majority of Crimeans nonetheless seemed to welcome. Russias problems begin with Putins unrealistic invasion plan. Russias invasion has the potential to set up a clash of nuclear world powers. What they came up with massive artillery bombardments and attempts to encircle and besiege Ukraines major cities was more effective (and more brutal). Javelins have given the outgunned Ukrainians a fighting chance against Russian armor, becoming a popular symbol in the process. The result - an estimated 100,000 Russian soldiers near its border with Ukraine, plus more Russian troops arriving in Belarus for snap war games. Even if it contains rigorous provisions designed to raise the costs of future aggression, like international peacekeepers, that may not hold him back from breaking the agreement. States often cooperate to keep limits on their wars even as they fight one another clandestinely, Lyall, the Dartmouth professor, tells me. In Russia, [it] provides the political-legal basis for the formal introduction of Russian forces, which theyve already decided to do, Kofman, of CNA, told Vox on February 21. Secondarily, it provides the legal local basis for Russian use of force in defense of these independent republics Russian citizens there. US intelligence, which has been remarkably accurate during the crisis, believes that Russia has requested military and financial assistance from Beijing which hasnt been provided yet but may well be forthcoming. Where to donate if you want to assist refugees and people in Ukraine. By mid-March, Western intelligence agencies and open source analysts concluded that the Ukrainians had successfully managed to stall the Russian invasion. The Russian military has made advances in the south, and are gaining in the area of Kherson, a port city on the Black Sea whose control is reportedly contested, and Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov. The Ukraine war has produced a similarly sized exodus in just a month, leading to truly massive refugee flows to its European neighbors. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. Still, the West is starting to shift from an original hesitancy to impose the most severe costs on Russia over fears of what it might mean for Europe, the US, and the rest of the global economy and what Russia might do to retaliate. It also commits at least 11 countries, including the United States and China, to coming to Ukraines aid if it is attacked again. Read here to know more about the background, geopolitical aspects, and the present situation of the conflict. The Ukrainian foreign minister called it a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. By the afternoon in Ukraine, Russian troops and tanks had entered the country on three fronts: from Belarus in the north, from the east of Ukraine, and from the south. The war, however, poses an existential threat to Ukraine. Can you chip in to help keep Vox free for all? Assessment 1: Russia-Ukraine War Impact on Cost of Energy By (Name) Course Professor University City and state Date Executive Summary The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly impacted international markets and organizations of all sizes, including PepsiCo Inc. PepsiCo Inc., like many organizations, The Russian military all but openly recognized this reality in a late March briefing, in which top generals implausibly claimed they never intended to take Kyiv and were always focused on making territorial gains in the east. On February 24, Putin announced he was launching an assault to defend people who for eight years are suffering persecution and genocide by the Kyiv regime, a reference to a false claim about the government in Ukraine. While Putins force enjoys overwhelming superiority in terms of manpower and firepower, the Russian army appears to be poorly led and is increasingly demoralized. Russia and the West, and least of all the various factions in Ukraine, have not acted on this principle. There is more America can do, particularly when it comes to fulfilling Ukrainian requests for new fighter jets. The Biden administration believes Chinas desire to be seen as a broker for peace between Russia and Ukraine may be viewed more critically now that Putin is Each has made the situation worse. Reader support helps us do that. Peace negotiations between the two sides are ongoing, and some reporting suggests theyre bearing fruit. Here's how the two countries. A negotiated settlement is the most likely way the conflict ends. This all does not mean that a Russian victory is impossible. Ukraines far-right presence has grown and become somewhat normalized, and there are government-aligned fascist militias in the country. The war has stirred up some opposition and anti-Putin sentiment, but it has been confined to a minority who are unlikely to change Putins mind, let alone topple him. Having spent a chunk of my professional career [working] with the Ukrainians, nobody, myself included and themselves included, had all that high an estimation of their military capacity, Oliker says. Those next steps are now clear. Another part of it is corruption in the Russian procurement system. WebThe Russo-Ukrainian War [f] is an international conflict between Russia and Russian-backed separatists, against Ukraine, which began in February 2014. Refugees from Ukraine are seen after crossing Ukrainian-Polish border due to Russian military attack on Ukraine. We understand what is happening; we understand that [the protests] were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration, he said in a March 2014 speech on the annexation of Crimea. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. Many of them appear to genuinely believe what they hear: One independent opinion poll found that 58 percent of Russians supported the war to at least some degree. Millions turn to Vox to educate themselves, their family, and their friends about whats happening in the world around them, and to learn about things that spark their curiosity. NEW #Ukraine Conflict Update; Click the link to read the latest assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats https://t.co/0Hb0nLSebU pic.twitter.com/RINKbJsJIM, They had maximal war aims, Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, said in an interview posted on Twitter on February 25. They had a military operation thats now in progress, first to try to achieve regime change, encircle the capital, and try to overthrow the Ukrainian government, and then a much larger set of pincer movements to encircle and envelope Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian officials have said about 11,000 Russian troops have been killed in the fighting, as of March 6, but American and European estimates of Russian casualties have been substantially lower. Soon after Putins speech, reports emerged of explosions around cities, including Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and the capital Kyiv. Putin has been fixated on reclaiming some semblance of empire, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. Both Ukraine and Russia have suggested they will hold another round of talks in coming days. A month into the invasion, Ukrainians still hold Kyiv. A separate NATO estimate puts that at the low end, estimating between 7,000 and 15,000 Russians killed in action and as many as 40,000 total losses (including injuries, captures, and desertions). There have also been antiwar rallies in dozens of Russian cities. In Ukraine, that would mean the US and its NATO allies sending in jets to patrol Ukraines skies and being willing to shoot down any Russian planes that enter protected airspace. Please consider making a one-time contribution to Vox today. It drove the Russians nuts. You can also contribute via, 9 big questions about Russias war in Ukraine, answered. Already, thousands of lives have been lost, and millions of livelihoods have been disrupted through displacement, lost homes, and lost incomes (Exhibit 1). The Russian invasion of Ukraine entered its third week on Thursday, with Russian forces continuing to bombard major cities. Why he would want to do this is a more complex story, one that emerges out of the very long arc of Russian-Ukrainian relations. The conflict expanded in April 2014 when Russians and local proxy forces seized territory in Ukraines Donbas region; over the next seven years, But in practice, its unlikely: The Russians dont appear to want a wider war with NATO that risks nuclear escalation, and so have avoided cross-border strikes even when it might destroy supply shipments bound for Ukraine. Tensions escalated quickly when, on February 21, Putin delivered an hour-long combative speech that essentially denied Ukrainian statehood. NATO expansion was deeply unpopular in Russia. On February 24, the Pentagon said it would send 7,000 additional troops to Germany, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on February 26 that he was authorizing up to $350 million in additional military aid to Ukraine, including further lethal defensive assistance to help Ukraine address the armored, airborne, and other threats it is now facing.. On the whole, the United States has been strikingly willing to take aggressive steps to punish Moscow and aid Kyivs war effort. Ukraine and Russia have significant, deep, and longstanding cultural and historical ties; both date their political origins back to the ninth-century Slavic kingdom of Kievan Rus. Ukrainian officials have also accused Russia of war crimes after reports of a shelling of an orphanage and kindergarten outside of Kyiv. In Eastern Europe, the average gas cost was $3.41 in December and rose to $3.75 a day after the first attack on Ukraine (Rowan, 2022). WebRowan (2022) reports that JP Morgan estimates that twelve percent of the global oil supply comes from Russia. Experts caution that these events remain quite unlikely. But the Russian army has not been able to completely roll over Ukrainian forces, and some analysts have suggested Moscow may have been surprised at Ukraines resistance. Poland, the primary destination of Ukrainian refugees, is currently housing over 2.3 million Ukrainians, a figure larger than the entire population of Warsaw, its capital and largest city. In March, Washington rejected a Polish plan to transfer MiG-29 aircraft to Ukraine via a US Air Force base in Germany, arguing that it could be too provocative. Why Putin decided that merely seizing part of Ukraine was no longer enough remains a matter of significant debate among experts. Google Pay. To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: If you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history, the Russian president said. Its hard to get accurate information in a war zone, but one of the more authoritative estimates of Russian war dead from the US Defense Department concludes that over 7,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the first three weeks of fighting, a figure about three times as large as the total US service members dead in all 20 years of fighting in Afghanistan. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. If the point is just to wreak havoc, then theyre doing fine. From there, the risks of a nuclear conflict become terrifyingly high. In the past week, the world order has been shattered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the first major military action between European nations in decades. Russias assault grew out of mass protests in Ukraine that toppled the countrys pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, which began over his abandonment of a trade agreement with the European Union. Ukraine is the fourth-largest recipient of military funding from the US, and the intelligence cooperation between the two countries has deepened in response to threats from Russia. Russia has continued to insist that a ceasefire requires demilitarization and neutrality for Ukraine, but Ukraine has only continued to push for more military aid and ascension into Western bodies like the EU, even signing an EU membership application amid the fighting. The US and its allies have said they will target Russias central bank, specifically its foreign reserves that Moscow needs to help support its currency. This infuriated the Russians, who saw NATO expansion as a direct threat to their own security. Smoke rises from an air defense base in the aftermath of an apparent Russian strike in Mariupol, Ukraine, on Thursday. WebAll the Ukrainian people and Russian people have contributed to the conflict. Many of these countries, wary of once again being put under the Russian boot, clamored to join the alliance, which commits all involved countries to defend any member-state in the event of an attack. Pentagon officials said that, as of March 4, Russia has committed about 92 percent of its combat power so far. After months of Putin building up tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border and a series of failed diplomatic talks, Russia is now waging a full-out war on Ukraine. While theres always a risk of unintended escalation, historical examples like Vietnam, Afghanistan (1980s), Afghanistan again (post-2001), and Syria show that wars can be fought within bounds.. Freezing the assets of Russias central bank has proven to be a particularly damaging tool, wrecking Russias ability to deal with the collapse in the value of the ruble, its currency. Prior to the war, Putin also appeared to be a genuinely popular figure in Russia. It came right for Putin. Photo by Carlos Though Putin has continued to tout the threat of NATO, his speech on February 21 showed that his obsession with Ukraine goes far beyond that. In a military that has long had systemic morale problems, thats a recipe for battlefield disaster. Food is running out, and the Russians have stopped humanitarian attempts to bring it in. Experts said all these statistics should be treated with a great deal of caution because of the fog of war and the incentives both Russia and Ukraine have to push a particular narrative. Though the claims of genocide and Nazi rule in Kyiv were transparently false, the rhetoric revealed Putins maximalist war aims: regime change (de-Nazification) and the elimination of Ukraines status as a sovereign state outside of Russian control (demilitarization). Please consider making a one-time contribution to Vox today. Russias unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has set alight the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? Military procurement is no exception to this pattern of widespread corruption, and it has led to troops having substandard access to vital supplies. WebRussia-Ukraine War: Insights and Analysis Lessons from a year of war in Ukraine One year on from Russias invasion of Ukraine, Harvard Kennedy School faculty members Outside of Europe, only a handful of mostly pro-American states like South Korea, Japan, and Australia have joined the sanctions regime. And what level of success does Russia have in fighting back against? In a long essay on historical unity, published last July, he argued that Ukraine and Russia were a single country, bound by a shared origin. But while the immediate cause of Putins shift on Ukraine is not clear, the nature of that shift is. They reported a death total of 2,500 but cautioned that many bodies cant be counted because of the endless shelling. The situation is impossibly dire: Airstrikes and shells have hit the maternity hospital, the fire department, homes, a church, a field outside a school. Russia is holding power in this conflict situation by sending their troops to Ukraine which result Its now extremely difficult to get a sense of what either ordinary Russians or the countrys elite think about the war, as criticizing it could lead to a lengthy stint in prison. The buildup of forces The Biden administration is taking these threats seriously. A disastrous war might end up changing that, but the odds that even a sustained drop in his support translates into a coup or revolution remain low indeed. Unfortunately, it seems like the best strategy for peace right now is when enough Russians die, that the Russians decide its not worth it anymore.. NATO has vowed to protect its members from any Russian aggression. Russia has made some gains, especially in the east and south, but the consensus view among military experts is that Ukraines defenses have held stoutly to the point where Ukrainians have been able to launch counteroffensives. Ukrainian officials called on residents to make Molotov cocktails to defend against the invasion. At the time, most experts Vox spoke to said that looked like the beginning, not the end, of Russias incursion into Ukraine. But despite this opacity, expert Russia watchers have developed a broad idea of whats going on there. This sustained international pressure, and Ukraines resistance, may still not be enough to force Russia to end its military campaign. The resolution of these issues will likely depend quite a bit on the wars progress. And even if Russian morale remains low, its still possible for them to win though theyre more likely to do so in a brutally ugly fashion. In other words, some of the things that I would have expected like the air force taking a major role have not happened., Seems to me there was a lot of war optimism and a sense that the [Ukrainian] government would fall with just a little push, Charap continued. The bulk of the Russian public was no more prepared for war than the bulk of the Russian military in fact, probably less so. I think that they want to inflict maximum damage to pressure the Ukrainian government to seek some sort of ceasefire that is effectively a surrender, said Margarita Konaev, associate director of analysis and research fellow at Georgetowns Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Regardless of where one falls on that debate, US policy during the conflict has been exceptionally clear: support the Ukrainians with massive amounts of military assistance while putting pressure on Putin to back down by organizing an unprecedented array of international economic sanctions. The battle for Ukraine began in the early morning hours, local time, on February 24, when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a special military operation into the country of about 40 million. As experts said, that was likely just the beginning, setting the stage for a much larger conflict. The Javelin anti-tank missile system, for example, is a lightweight American-made launcher that allows one or two infantry soldiers to take out a tank. Efforts to stop the fighting have so far failed. The Ukraine crisis has crossed a critical point, with Russia following up its recognition of rebel regions in eastern Ukraine (Donbas region)- Donetsk and Luhansk with a full-fledged invasion to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine. Russian morale was incredibly low BEFORE the war broke out. The Russians want Ukrainian recognition of its annexation of Crimea and the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions; Ukraine claims all three as part of its territory. Yet these are largely defensive measures, which means most of the punishment against Russia will come in the form of economic sanctions. But the fallout from these punishments along with other measures, like the EU and United States barring Russia from their airspace is being felt in Russia, as the ruble crashes and analysts warn of a deep recession. Essay | Paul Berman. You can also contribute via. The US and its allies have only amped up the pressure since then. Russia's strongman leader speaks often of the ethnic ties between Russia and Ukraine and warns against NATO expanding further eastward toward his borders. It came right for Putin. This invasion did, after all, start with him launching an invasion that seemed bound to hurt Russia in the long run. The US and its allies are also likely going to have to decide how much they want, or can, support Ukraine as it battles Russia. The political, economic, national security, and humanitarian reverberations from the eight weeks of war between Russia and Ukraine are already beginning to reshape the global order as the conflict enters a brutal new chapter, with fighting concentrated in the southeast of Ukraine. Thats about 8.8 percent of Ukraines total population in proportional terms, the rough equivalent of the entire population of Texas being forced to flee the United States. Photo: AFP or licensors Ukrainian forces have bogged down Russian units in towns and smaller cities; street-to-street combat favors defenders who can use their superior knowledge of the citys geography to hide and conduct ambushes. Morale was incredibly low BEFORE the war believe Russians are suffering from poor morale doing fine from it! In dozens of Russian cities requests for new fighter jets in fighting back against Ukrainians! 2,500 but cautioned that many bodies cant be counted because of the war. 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